Wala`au Dude

Walaau Dude aka HawaiiBoy

I ask Why? A lot!

  I'm a Former Chef, among other stuff, an #Arsenal FC fan, live in Kona, Hawaii and I play with technology all day.

 

 

 

A nice big winter storm and a north swell for Christmas in Hawaii

Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

121
FXHW60 PHFO 191325
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN DEC 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY. HEAVIER
SHOWERS IN THE RAIN WILL THREATEN FLASH FLOODING ANYWHERE IN THE
STATE...AND A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS ON THE
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL SOUNDINGS REVEALED A GREATLY WEAKENED INVERSION...AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INTRUDING AT MULTIPLE LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
MEASUREMENT AT LIHUE HAD RISEN TO AN IMPRESSIVE 1.9 INCHES. EVEN
MORE WATER VAPOR LURKED OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE...
WHERE RADAR DATA DEPICTED WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY
SHOWERS TRAINING FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST.

IN THE SHORT RUN...GUIDANCE PREDICTS DEEP RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE TO LANGUISH IN PLACE AS A DEEPENING
STACKED LOW TO THE WEST TURNS THE WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AT MOST
LEVELS. THIS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS...SPREADING
STRATUS RAIN AND BATCHES OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE.

THE RIDGING AND DEEP WARM ADVECTION TOGETHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ALOFT A BIT TOO HIGH FOR OPTIMAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
COPIOUS MOISTURE HAS PROVEN SUFFICIENT TO SPAWN ONE NORTHWEST OF
HONOLULU INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ANYWAY...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION CANNOT BE EXCLUDED.

RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTHERLY SLOPES OF THE
BIG ISLAND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS HAD STARTED UP...AND THIS ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE THE STRATUS REACHES THE BIG
ISLAND IN STRENGTH...IT SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO COVER THE SUMMITS.
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THOSE ALTITUDES...WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS CERTAINLY WILL BE POSSIBLE. PREDICTING ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW OR ICE IS PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE EXTENSIVE WARM ADVECTION WILL
TEND TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MELTING...ESPECIALLY BY DAY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...SOME FROZEN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THE SUMMITS APPEARS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THUS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A WEAKENING
FRONTAL CLOUD BAND FINALLY MAY PRESS SOUTH TOWARD THE STATE.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEFORE REACHING THE
ISLANDS...SO THE MOIST AIR MASS AND STRATUS LAYERS WILL LANGUISH
OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. A QUICK BURST OF TRADE
WINDS WILL BLOW THE FRONTAL REMNANTS OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THEN WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS NEW SCENARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR NORTH-FACING SHORES...AND FOR EAST-FACING SHORES EXPOSED TO THE
NORTH SWELL...UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SWELL ALSO WILL PRODUCE
HARBOR SURGES IN NORTH-FACING HARBORS...INCLUDING KAHULUI AND HILO
HARBORS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR SHORES FACING NORTH OR
EAST.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

Posted via email from Wala`au Media's fun posterous Blog